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| Fig. 1: Process of plastic recycling. (Source: Wikimedia Commons) |
Plastics can be found pretty much everywhere in our modern world, and are derived from petrochemical feedstocks, particularly from the ethane and naphtha components of crude oil. [1] Global production of plastics reached 380 million metric tons in 2015, and has had a compound annual growth rate of 8.4% since 1950. [2] Extrapolating the growth rate, this means plastic production rate will double in just under 9 years. Recycling, as shown in Fig. 1, offers an avenue to offset a portion of the oil demand and emissions involved in the plastic production process.
It is estimated that 8.3 billion metric tons have been produced, as of 2015. [2] Of all the plastic waste ever generated, 9% has been recycled, 12% incinerated, and 79% has accumulated in landfills or our environment. [2] Studies estimate that 12 billion metric tons of waste will be in landfills or the natural environment by 2050, if we progress at this current rate. [2] Such projections point to the long-term persistence of plastics in ecosystems and the magnitude of the challenge ahead.
The vast majority of plastics are made from virgin fossil feedstocks, which corresponds to ~6% of global oil use. [3] This is a nontrivial amount, roughly equivalent to the oil consumption of the global aviation sector. Beyond the scale of consumption, this figure underscores how deeply intertwined plastic production is with the broader fossil-fuel economy: plastics are not merely a by-product but a major, structurally important outlet for oil demand. As a result, the trajectory of plastic manufacturing significantly influences future energy use and climate outcomes. The global oil consumption is 94 million barrels a day, implying plastic production currently uses 5.6 million barrels per day. [4] These numbers illustrate the scale of the plastic production industry and its close connection to oil.
It is estimated that 50 million metric tons of crude oil per year are saved by recycling plastics, assuming a recycling rate of 12%. [5] If a recycling rate of 100% is managed, then slightly over 1% of the world's oil consumption would be saved. Regarding emissions, is it estimated that if all plastics are incinerated, then global yearly emissions of CO2 will reach 6.0Gt by 2040. But if all that plastic waste was recycled instead, the emissions in 2040 would drop to 3.9Gt. The above figures highlight the potential environmental gains that could be achieved through expanding global recycling infrastructure.
Despite the net benefit of recycling plastics being modest, it remains a promising near-term strategy to reduce oil consumption and GHG emissions. Increasing recycling rates can lessen dependence on crude oil sources and cut the energy intensity of plastic production. While not a complete solution, recycling represents a practical step toward a more sustainable plastics economy.
© Pranav Kakhandiki. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.
[1] "The Future of Petrochemicals," International Energy Agency, 2018.
[2] R. Geyer, J. R. Jambeck, and K. L. Law, "Production, Use, and Fate of All Plastics Ever Made," Sci. Adv. 3, e1700782 (2017).
[3] T. R. Walker and L. Fequet "Current Trends of Unsustainable Plastic Production and Micro(nano) Plastic Pollution," TrAC Trends Anal. Chem. 160, 116984 (2023).
[4] "BP Statistical Review of World Energy," British Petroleum, June 2022
[5] E. W. Gabisa, C. Ratanatamskul, and S. H. Gheewala, "Recycling of Plastics as a Strategy to Reduce Life Cycle GHG Emission, Microplastics and Resource Depletion," Sustainability 19, 11529 (2023).
