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| Fig. 1: Map of Guyana's Amaila Falls and Essequibo Region. [4,5,7] (Image source: J. Contreras. Base image from Wikimedia Commons) |
Guyana is a small country in South America with dense rainforests and an abundance of natural resources. In 2015, the country discovered significant offshore oil deposits in the Stabroek oil block that served as a catalyst for economic growth and large investments in public infrastructure. [1] One project currently under consideration is the Amaila Falls Hydropower Project (AFHP) in the Kuribrong River 250 kilometers southwest of the country's capital, Georgetown (Fig. 1). To quantify the potential impact of AFHP on Guyana's power generation mix, we shall estimate the electricity that would be generated by the hydropower plant and compare it to Guyana's total electricity generation.
The Amaila Falls hydropower project was first proposed in the 1990s, when the government carried out feasibility studies to assess the potential social and environmental impacts of damming the Kuribrong River. [2] In 2007, Sithe Global joined the project as an investor and the Guyanese government established a special purpose company (Amaila Falls Hydro Incorporated) to oversee the project. Over the next several years, progress continued and the project secured a construction contractor and was on track to get funding from the China development bank and the Inter-American development bank. [2] However, in 2013 negotiations collapsed after the country's main opposition party, A Partnership for National Unity, opposed the project. Amaila Falls lost US $100 million from a financing deal with the Inter-American Development bank that required unanimous parliamentary backing. In the aftermath, Sithe Global pulled out of the project and development plans were stalled. [3]
As can be seen in Fig. 1, one factor affecting the project is that it is located in the Essequibo region of Guyana, which spans all land west of the Essequibo river. Venezuela argues this region was stolen from them when borders were drawn over a century ago. [4] After Guyana discovered the Stabroek oil block, border disputes stirred up because the oil reserves sit almost entirely in the Essequibo region's territorial waters. [4,5] The conflict threatens to destabilize the region and could potentially affect the development timeline of the project.
Amid these concerns, as of 2024, the Guyanese government has re-tendered the project, signaling a renewed interest in resuming development in accordance with Guyana's low-carbon development strategy. [3,6]
Hydropower harnesses the mechanical energy of falling water to spin turbines, which drive generators that produce electricity. The equation used to calculate the power generated from a dam can be expressed as:
| Power Capacity | = | ρ g h Φ × η |
where ρ = 1000 kg/m3 is the density of water, g = 9.81 m/s2 is the acceleration due to gravity, h is the hydraulic head in meters, Φ is the water flow rate measured in cubic meters per second, and η is the overall efficiency of the power plant. To find the water flow and head values, we refer to a technical report commissioned by the Guyanese and Norwegian governments in 2016. [7]
According to this report, the river gradient provides a gross head of h = 345 m over a river stretch of approximately 3 km, and the water flow is, on average, Φ = 52 m3/s. [7] Assuming a standard efficiency of 90% for the hydropower plant, we find the power output to be [8]
| 1000 kg/m3 × 52 m3/s × 9.81 m/s2 × 345 m × 0.9 | = | 1.58 × 108 watts |
or 158 MW of power capacity. This power capacity can then be converted to annual electricity generation by applying the general equation:
| Annual Electricity Output | = | Power Capacity × Capacity Factor × 8760 hours yr-1 |
The capacity factor accounts for the fact that the hydropower facility is not always running at full power and has variations due to changes in precipitation or potential outages. As the Norconsult report states, the hydrology at Amaila Falls is not well established because continuous series of direct flow measurements at the project site have never been taken, making the capacity factor hard to gauge. [7] To get a sensible estimate, we use the average regional capacity factor for hydropower in Latin America (54%) published by the IPCC in 2011. [9] We obtain
| 158 MW × 0.54 × 8760 hours yr-1 | = | 747,403 MWh per year |
or approximately 0.747 TWh per year. To compare this figure to Guyana's total electricity generation, we refer to the Guyana analysis brief published by the Energy Information Administration in 2024. [10] It shows that a total 1.14 TWh of electricity was generated in 2022 and only 1.9% (0.02 TWh) came from renewables. [10]
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| Fig. 2: Electricity generation by source in Guyana in 2022. [7-10] AFHP could provide 65.5% of the country's electricity and would generate 37.5x more renewable power than all other clean energy systems in Guyana combined (Image source: J. Contreras) |
Comparing these figures to the electricity generated from Amaila Falls, we see that
| 0.747 TWh 1.14 TWh |
= | 0.655 |
which means that 65.5% of the electricity generated in the country could have been supplied by Amaila Falls. As can be seen in Fig. 2, the hydropower plant would also generate 37.35 times more low-carbon electricity than was generated from all other renewable energy sources in the country in 2022:
| 0.747 TWh 0.02 TWh |
= | 37.35 |
The Amaila Falls Hydropower Project would be transformative for Guyana. The current electricity system is relatively small and completely dominated by fossil fuels (98.1%). [10] Because total national electricity generation is modest, a large hydropower plant like Amaila Falls has the potential to drastically reduce the grid's carbon footprint. Estimating the impact this project could have on the national electricity landscape, it becomes clear why the Guyanese government remains committed to building the power plant despite its prolonged and uneven development trajectory of more than 25 years.
© Julio Contreras. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.
[1] K. Bakx, "Guyana's Oil Rrevolution," CBC News, 18 May 25.
[2] "Guyana's Low Carbon Development Strategy 2030," Government of Guyana, July 2022.
[3] "U.S. Power Developer Pulls Out of $858 Million Guyana Project," Reuters, 12 Aug 13.
[4] A. Phillips, "Map Shows Region Venezuela Has Voted To Take From Guyana," Newsweek, 4 Dec 23.
[5] B. Ellsworth "Guyana Oil Exploration Stirs Up Venezuela Border Dispute," Reuters, 6 Jun 23.
[6] "2025 World Hydropower Outlook: Opportunities to Advance Net Zero," International Hydropower Association, 2025.
[7] "Review of the Amaila Falls Hydropower Project in Guyana," Norconsult, December 2016.
[8] "Reclamation - Managing Water in the West - Hydroelectric Power," U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, July 2005.
[9] O. Edenhofer et al., Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, 2011).
[10] "Country Analysis Brief: Guyana," U.S. Energy Information Administration, May 2024.
