Hydroelectricity in Pakistan

Ahmad Zafar
December 19, 2024

Submitted as coursework for PH240, Stanford University, Fall 2024

Introduction

Fig. 1: Energy sources in Pakistan [1] (Image Source: A. Zafar)

Pakistan's hydroelectric sector plays a vital role in the country's energy landscape, with major dams contributing significantly to the national power supply. This analysis examines the current state and future potential of Pakistan's hydropower infrastructure, focusing on its strategic geographic distribution and implications.

Current Generation Overview

As of March 2024, Pakistan's installed hydroelectric capacity stands at 10,681 MW, representing 25.4% of the country's total installed capacity of 42,131 MW. [1] Looking at Fig. 1, Hydropower generates 29,167.10 GWh annually, constituting 31.67% of actual electricity generation (92,091 MW). [1] This significant contribution underscores the importance of hydropower in Pakistan's energy mix, providing both economic and environmental benefits. Converting this to Joules we obtain

29,167.10 GWh y-1 × 3.6 × 109 J GWh-1 = 1.05 × 1017 J y-1

Major Hydroelectric Infrastructure and Geographic Distribution

A significant portion of Pakistan's hydroelectric capacity is concentrated in the northern regions, particularly in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK). Kashmir's strategic significance for Pakistan's hydropower sector stems from its unique geographic advantages and substantial untapped potential. The region's mountainous terrain and river systems - particularly the Neelum, Jhelum, and Kunhar rivers - create ideal conditions for hydroelectric generation. The Neelum-Jhelum Hydroelectric Project exemplifies both this potential and associated challenges. While the project previously generated over 4,500 GWh annually, recent tunnel structural issues have temporarily halted operations, highlighting the technical complexities of harnessing this power.

Project Location Capacity (MW) Annual Generation (GWh)
Tarbela Dam Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 3,478 12,565
Tarbela Extension Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 1,410 3,550
Mangla Dam Azad Jammu and Kashmir 1,000 6,810
Ghazi Barotha Power Project Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 1,450 5,313
Warsak Dam Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 243 1,064
Table 1: Major hydroelectric resources in Pakistan. [2]

Future Outlook

A significant portion of Pakistan's hydroelectric capacity is concentrated in the northern regions, particularly in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), as shown in Table 1.

Kashmir's strategic significance for Pakistan's hydropower sector stems from its unique geographic advantages and substantial untapped potential. The region's mountainous terrain and river systems - particularly the Neelum, Jhelum, and Kunhar rivers - create ideal conditions for hydroelectric generation. The Neelum-Jhelum Hydroelectric Project exemplifies both this potential and associated challenges. While the project previously generated over 4,500 GWh annually, recent tunnel structural issues have temporarily halted operations, highlighting the technical complexities of harnessing this power. As of 2021, AJK's installed hydropower capacity stands at 2,331 MW, reflecting a remarkable 126.3% growth from 2007​. [2] This steady increase highlights a strong foundation for further development in the region. Under the Alternate and Renewable Energy (ARE) Policy 2019 framework, Pakistan aims to expand its renewable energy portfolio, including hydropower, to meet growing energy demands and support sustainable development goals. [2] The Neelum, Jhelum, and Kunhar rivers remain pivotal for future hydropower development, offering ideal sites for new projects.

© Ahmad Zafar. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.

References

[1] "Pakistan Economic Survey 2023-24," Government of Pakistan, June 2024.

[2] "Trends in Electricity Generation 2006-07 to 2020-21," Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, July 2022.