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| Fig. 1: Country-specific lithium reserves (blue) vs resources (orange). [2] Ordered by reserve sizes. (Source: R. Yuan) |
Lithium is a central component of grid-scale battery storage systems. Crucially, these batteries can store curtailed renewable energy, allowing it to be used later in the day when clean generation is unavailable. However, as more renewable energy and battery systems are deployed, it is important to track the global supply of lithium. A lithium shortage would stimy the deployment of battery systems, thus limiting the reliability of renewable energy resources.
Global lithium supplies were studied in 2021 by Haley Schwager as part of an earlier PHYSICS 240 report. At that time, the 2021 USGS Mineral Commodities Summary estimated 86 million metric tons of global lithium resources and 21 million metric tons of global lithium reserves. [1] In this context, resources refer to all the lithium that exists on Earth, whereas reserves only refer to lithium that can be economically extracted. [2]
3 years later, the 2024 USGS Mineral Commodities Summary now estimates 105 million tons of global lithium resources and 28 million tons of reserves. [2] This marks a 22% increase in resources and a 33% increase in reserves. It identifies reserves as most plentiful in Chile (9.3 million tons), followed by Australia (6.2 million tons), Argentina (3.6 million tons), and China (3 million tons). [2] The US, in comparison, holds 1.1 million tons of lithium reserves. [2] This global "leaderboard" of lithium reserves is illustrated in Fig. 1.
The 2022 annual global consumption of lithium was 180,000 tons. But by 2025, this number is projected to increase to between 393,000 to 493,000 tons. [2,3] Dividing the 21 million tons of lithium reserves by the extremes of this range reveals that lithium should be depleted within the next 43 to 53 years. However, given that the sizes of lithium resources and reserves have jumped so heavily in just 3 years, the timeline of lithium depletion may be longer in reality than what is calculated.
Jorgenson et al. calculated that 6,097 GWh of storage would be needed for a zero carbon grid in the United States. [4] Assuming that this would be entirely met through Lithium-ion battery storage, and using an approximation of 160 g of Lithium per kWh of battery storage, this means that 975,520 metric tons of lithium would be needed to achieve a fully decarbonized grid in the US. [5]
According to the 2022 BP Statistical Review of World Energy, the US accounted for 15.6% of global energy usage in 2021. [6] So, as a very rough estimate, we can multiply 975,520 by (1/0.156) to approximate a demand of 6.25 million metric tons of lithium for global grid decarbonization. This is far below the 28 million tons available in global lithium reserves. Therefore, as long as countries remain able to access foreign lithium supplies, there should be no gross supply risk for stationary storage systems.
Notably, grid storage batteries compete with a separate and significant source of lithium demand. That source is electric vehicles. Eason calculated in 2010 that 8.2 million metric tons of lithium would be needed to supply half of everyone on Earth with a middle-of-the-range EV. [7] Using Eason's method, but with an updated global population of 8.2 billion people, we find that an estimated 9.8 million metric tons of lithium would be needed for global EV penetration.
At the time of Eason's report, the lithium demand from EVs accounted for 82% of reported global reserves. However, using 2024 figures, EVs now only account for 35% of reported global reserves. In fact, combining the lithium demand of EVs and grid-scale storage still only chips away 57% of global reserves.
14 years ago, it seemed that supply constraints would prohibit a future fully moved by EVs, much less a future also fully powered by renewables and battery storage. Now, it appears that mineral supply is no longer a concern.
© Richard Yuan. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.
[1] H. Schwager, "World Lithium Supplies," Physics 240, Stanford University, Fall 2021.
[2] "Mineral Commodity Summaries 2024," U.S. Geological Survey (2024)
[3] D. Calisaya-Azpilcueta et al., "Current and Future Global Lithium Production Till 2025," Open Chem. Eng. J. 14, 36 (2020).
[4] J. Jorgenson et al., "Grid Operational Impacts of Widespread Storage Deployment", U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, NREL/TP-6A40-80688, January 2022.
[5] D. Kushnir, "Lithium Ion Battery Recycling Technology 1015: Current State and Future Prospects", Chalmers University of Technology, ESA Report 2015:18, December 2015.
[6] "BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022," British Petroleum, June 2022.
[7] E. Eason, "World Lithium Supply," Physics 240, Stanford University, Fall 2010.