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| Fig. 1: Raikheda Thermal Power Station, Raikheda, Raipur, Chattisgarh. (Source: Wikimedia Commons) |
An energy source has three important dimensions: share in total energy supply, reliability driven by domestic availability and nature of supply (incorporating two broad factors intermittency and dispatchability), and emissions released per unit of electricity generation. The last one has become important as countries have put forth their ambitious Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to tackle the global challenge of climate change. For India, coal serves well the first two dimensions. Given the projections for future energy demand and the suitability of coal, it will remain an important source of energy for India in the near future. To take care of the last dimension, India is pursuing the strategy of phasing in renewables to reduce the emissions per unit of electricity produced. Efforts have also been carried out to decarbonize the electricity of coal by way of promoting coal gasification and carbon capture storage and utilization.
All economic activities include the usage or conversion of energy. Such usage and conversion are driven by laws of physics: energy conservation and degradation of the overall quality of energy across processes. The scales of such usage and conversion are driven by economics and politics. Considering a systems approach, the total primary energy supply (TPES ) represents the total energy that is fed into the giant engine driving the Indian economy. This is one important indicator that allows us to look at the importance of coal.
The total primary energy supply for India was 733,105 kilotonnes of oil equivalent, or
| 7.331 × 105 kToE × 4.187 × 1013 J kToE-1 | = | 3.07 × 1019 J |
for 2020-21. [1] Of this, coal provided 422,811 KToE, or
| 4.228 × 105 kToE × 4.187 × 1013 J kToE-1 | = | 1.77 × 1019 J |
representing a share of around 57.7 percent. Thus, coal is India's most important source of energy.
If we look at the total energy supply from coal, imported coal provided around 115,541 KToE of energy. This was around 27.3 percent of the total primary energy extracted from coal. (See Fig. 1.) Therefore, while coal is the most important source of energy, it also ensures reliability through less dependency on imports. With a rise in geopolitically induced vulnerabilities, the importance of coal further increases.
Another major source is crude oil. While it provides around 33 percent of the total primary energy supplies, around 88 percent of it is imported. This enhances the vulnerability to energy security.
One big advantage of coal power is its dispatchability: the ability to adjust the power produced as per the demand. Further, the power produced is continuous, depending on the supply of the coal and not on extraneous factors such as the availability of sun in the case of solar and wind in the case of wind power. In fact, coal power is used to preserve balance in the grids tackling the variation in power outputs from renewable sources.
Next, it is important to analyze the estimated reserves of coal that India possesses. The estimated reserves stood at around 361.41 billion tonnes as of 2022. [1] Out of these, proved reserves stood at around 188 billion tonnes. Total estimated lignite reserves stood at 46.2 billion tonnes (with 16 percent of it being the proved reserves). In 2023-24, the coal production stood just short of 1 billion tonnes (997.3 million tonnes (MT)). [2] Assuming that energy demand grows at 2.5 percent per year (discussed latter) and share of coal in the energy mix remains constant, the coal reserves will get depleted in around 90 years. Therefore, the existing coal reserves can fulfill India's energy needs in the long run.
Interestingly, the electricity sector consumed around 291,116 KToE of energy. [1] Coal provided around 243,521 KToE of this which translates to a share of around 83.6 percent (Table 1).
This is interesting if we compare it with that of the installed capacity profile. India's total installed capacity was around 399.5 GW on 31st January 2022, with renewables contributing around 157 GW. [3] This is around 39 percent of the total installed capacity. This is in line with the vision of India of phasing in renewable energy so as to reduce the emissions per unit of electricity produced. This shows that, despite a steep rise in installed capacity, renewable contribution to electricity generated is much less. This is because renewables suffer from high intermittency and low dispatchability (the ability to control the electricity produced).
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| Table 1: Share of different sources in electricity production. [1] |
In 2020, the average age of existing coal power plants in 2020 was between 10 to 15 years for India and China. [4] Whereas more than 40 years in the USA and around 35 years in the EU. Evidence shows that the historical average lifetime of a coal power plant is around 50 years. [5] This indicates that the USA and the EU can retire their coal power plants much earlier. This is evidenced by the recent announcement on unabated coal power by G7. [6] However, India will need a much longer window for using coal to provide certainty to investors so that they can recover their large initial fixed costs. This will be important to facilitate required investments in coal power generation in context of rising energy demand.
The total primary energy demand growth is set to increase at an annual growth rate in the range of 2.1 percent to 2.9 percent between 2030 and 2050 depending on growth assumption. [7] This reflects a massive increase in primary energy requirements by 2050. This is also because India's per capita energy consumption is well below that of the world average. India will need a dependable source of energy to meet this massive rise in demand. On the other hand, per capita energy consumption has stagnated or even fallen in developed countries during recent years. This provides them a greater flexibility in shifting to cleaner sources of energy.
Coal is the only conventional energy source available in India in abundance and within domestic territories. In the medium to long term, despite a rapid phasing in of renewables, coal will remain an important source for India. Therefore, India will need a diversified set of energy sources with a major role of coal. While phasing in renewables will help reduce emissions intensity, other technologies such as coal gasification and carbon capture, storage, and utilization may also help in this direction.
© Amit Sheoran. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.
[1] "Energy Statistics India 2023," Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation, Government of India, March 2023.
[2] "Economic Survey 2023-24,", Ministry of Finance, Government of India, July 2024, p. 353.
[3] "National Electricity Plan - Volume I Generation," Central Electricity Authority, Ministry of Power, Government of India, March 2023, p.1.2.
[4] "World Energy Outlook 2021", International Energy Agency, December 2021.
[5] R. Y. Cui et al., "Quantifying Operational Lifetimes For Coal Power Plants Under the Paris Goals," Nat. Commun. 10, 4759 (2019).
[6] F. Landini, "G7 to Sign Exit From Coal by 2035, But May Offer Leeway, Sources Say," Reuters, 30 Apr 24.
[7] A Garg et al., "Synchronizing Energy Transitions Toward Possible Net Zero for India: Affordable and Clean Energy for All," Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, 2024.
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