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| Fig. 1: Solar energy potential across Bangladesh. [1] (Courtesy of M. Abdullah-Al-Mahbub through CC by 4.0 Deed.) |
Supply and demand is a concept that applies to every field and industry, ranging from sports all the way to electricity. Bangladesh, a rapidly growing emerging market, is no stranger to this concept as it directly applies to one of the country's biggest problems, its energy generation and distribution to meet the consumer demands that are put onto the electric grid. Given that its the 8th most populous country in the world, with a total of 167 million people and counting, this problem disrupts the everyday lives of many in the country. [1] Since 2022, 79% of consumers experience low-voltage supply and 60% suffer from disruption caused by rolling blackouts and load-shedding. [1] To further demonstrate the severity of the grid instability issue in Bangladesh, a recent study documented how the country had faced 4 nationwide blackouts, 2 in 2007 and 1 each in 2014 and 2017. [2]
To understand why Bangladesh is suffering from core structural problems like grid instability, it's essential to look at one of the key underlying factors: the fuel sources. Bangladesh is still heavily reliant on power generation from fossil fuels like coal and oil but in particular, natural gas. In 2022, the total electricity demand came out to about 24 gigawatts (GW). [2] In the 2021-2022 fiscal year, the total electricity production in Bangladesh was 22,348 megawatts(MW), with 50.75% (11,342 MW) coming from utilizing natural gas, 28.32% (6,329 MW) from furnace oil, 7.91% from coal (1768 MW), 5.19% (1160 MW) through imports from India, 5.77% from Diesel (1290 MW), and the remaining 2.88% (459 MW) coming from renewable sources. [2] Given recent global developments including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, supply lines to import fossil fuels have become more dry, thus further increasing grid instability as Bangladesh fails to have a steady flow of fuel to support the energy consumption of all its people.
Given the urgency of the grid instability situation in Bangladesh, coupled with the fact that the country is disproportionately impacted by climate change that stems from the greenhouse gas emissions attributed to burning fossil fuels for energy, it's important to analyze how renewable energy can help Bangladesh address grid instability while assisting with a transition to more sustainable energy for its power grid.
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| Fig. 2: Wind energy potential across Bangladesh. [4] (Courtesy of the DOE) |
Solar energy, or energy harvested from the rays and heat from the sun, has immense upside for energy production in Bangladesh. For starters, the country greatly benefits from a favorable geographic location that gets year-round sunlight. A 2019 study conducted by the World Bank and Renewable Energy Research Centre, which is still ongoing, mapped that 94% of Bangladeshs total land area is within a solar radiation range that carries a photovoltaic power potential of 4 to 6.5 kilowatt-hours per square meter per day (kWh/m2/day), as evident in Fig. 1. [3] Given that the country averages about 6.5 hours of sunlight daily and the national average solar radiation comes out to .2kW/m2 per year, calculations put the yearly theoretical solar energy capacity at 70,000 terawatt-hours (TWh), which is exponentially greater than the capacity and output currently provided by fossil fuels like natural gas. [3]
The yearly theoretical capacity that solar energy brings to Bangladesh would be game-changing for Bangladesh's electric grid. Considering this theoretical value in the context of the recent demand and production in the country can demonstrate how impactful increased solar integration and production would be. In 2019 alone, the total demand from consumers for power was 14,796 megawatts (MW), however, energy production only came out to 12,893 MW from primary fuel sources like natural gas, resulting in a gap that Bangladesh had to fill with heightened fossil fuel imports and energy imports from neighboring countries like India. [3] While achieving the full theoretical solar energy capacity of 70,000 TWh might initially be very challenging both from a cost and logistical sense, rapid and phased integration of photovoltaic cells on areas like roofs could help provide enough energy for Bangladesh to eliminate the gap and start becoming less reliant on production from natural gas. And with current natural gas reserves, amounting to 7.25 trillion cubic feet (TcF), being expected to be depleted in a decade given the rate of increase in energy demand in Bangladesh, the country needs to transition to a high potential energy source like solar much more quickly. Otherwise, the country will lose about 55% of its total energy production which currently comes from natural gas utilization. [3]
Wind energy, or energy harvested from the force of the wind, also carries the potential to assist Bangladesh in transitioning from its reliance on fossil fuels to a more sustainable source that could help the country meet its growing energy demands. While Bangladesh's geographic location doesn't benefit it as much for wind energy potential as it does solar, estimates still prove to be promising. A recently published study conducted by USAID and the National Renewable Energy Resource Lab in 2018 mapped wind speeds across Bangladesh to average about 5.75 - 7.57 meters per second (m/s) daily, after placing thousands of sensors across various locations and installations throughout Bangladesh's 8 administrative districts, as evident in Fig. 2. [4] Initial energy calculations based on this data have suggested that by utilizing about 20,000 square kilometers (km2), the theoretical production potential would amount to 30,000 MW. [4] While this estimate is more overarching as there are areas of land in Bangladesh that aren't optimal for harnessing wind energy, this theoretical potential already suggests that a sizeable amount of energy could be generated, which could help the country start overcoming energy gaps and transitioning towards heavier reliance on wind energy.
Both wind and solar energy bring sizeable potential for energy production, as seen around the world, however, its important to weigh the costs and benefits they bring to Bangladeshs unique situation. If we look at solar energy, it benefits the most from Bangladesh's geographic location as the constant year-round solar radiation across most of the country would allow developers to harness the radiation to produce electricity. Consequently, given these factors, it also carries the greatest theoretical energy capacity of 70,000 TWh. However, there are barriers that would need to be addressed in order to capitalize on this energy potential and maximize output. For example, in order to create a solar plant capable of harnessing and producing sizeable amounts of electricity, it would require considerable open space. Estimates suggest that about 5 acres are needed to generate 1 MW, based on currently available technology, and huge plots of available land arent readily available considering Bangladesh is overpopulated. [5] On the other hand, it would only require 1 acre of land to generate 1 MW if the country were to install a wind turbine. [5]
Despite these challenges, solar energy is still more favorable for Bangladesh than a complete reliance on and transition towards wind energy. While studies show that average winds are about 5.75 - 7.75 m/s, this is a considerably low figure for energy production from wind and wouldnt be enough to help Bangladesh with its growing demand. [6] Furthermore, given climate patterns have shifted drastically in Bangladesh with a more frequent occurrence of strong rainstorms with high winds, this would require developers to further fortify wind turbine installations, thus driving the cost. While large solar farms would also be costly, they can be more easily installed in greater quantities on top of housing and building structures in Bangladesh, thus allowing the country to take greater advantage of the solar energy potential.
However, given that wind energy does provide some promise for energy production, it could be strategic to spend a smaller amount of capital on exploring systems that harness both wind and solar energy. These small-scale systems would include a combination of energy production from two separate but conjoined lines, one to harness solar energy from a medium-scale solar battery and mini-grid, and the other, a smaller turbine. [6] While these small-scale systems aren't as commercially profitable, they could bridge access to stable electricity for people in more rural parts of Bangladesh with zero or limited grid access. [6]
Bangladesh, a growing emerging market, faces a time-sensitive challenge in addressing its grid instability problem. Its heavy reliance on energy production from fossil fuels like natural gas is unsustainable because these resources are being depleted and contributing to increasing greenhouse gas emissions that are detrimental to our climate. As demand continues to grow, Bangladesh needs to transition to a renewable energy source like solar, which provides immense energy capacity and potential given the countrys unique geographic location. Given that solar has more advantages than wind in Bangladesh, this should inform a proper investment and allocation of resources, however, it does not mean we shouldnt also invest in expanding wind energy since we need contributions for both so that together, they can contribute to greater energy production for the Bangladeshi people.
© Itbaan Nafi. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants dpermission to copy, distribute, and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.
[1] M. Abdullah-Al-Mahbub and A. R. M. T. Islam, "Current Status of Running Renewable Energy in Bangladesh and Future Prospect: A Global Comparison," Heliyon 9, e14308 (2023).
[2] "Study on Grid Stability in Bangladesh," Bangladesh Univesity of Engineering and Technology, ACA/2021/428-287, January 2023.
[3] M. I. Miskat et al., "Current Scenario of Solar Energy Applications in Bangladesh: Techno-Economic Perspective, Policy Implementation, and Possibility of the Integration of Artificial Intelligence," Energies 16, 1494 (2023).
[4] M. Jacobson et al., "Assessing the Wind Energy Potential in Bangladesh," U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, NREL/TP-5000-71077, September 2018.
[5] S. M. Hossain, S. Biswas, and M. R. Uddin, "Sustainable Energy Transition in Bangladesh: Challenges and Pathways For the Future," 2023, e12752 (2023).
[6] "Baseline Study Wind Energy Bangladesh," Neherlands Enterprise Agency, RVO-040-1701/RP-INT, May 2017.