Shale Oil Consumption in Estonia Under Soviet Occupancy

Kevin Lamp
December 12, 2023

Submitted as coursework for PH240, Stanford University, Fall 2023

What Is Shale Oil?

Fig. 1: Cost and Consumption of Oil Shale in Estonia from 1976-1991, from Table 1. [3] - (Image Source: K. Lamp).

Through the decomposition and thermal reactions within sedimentary rock rich in kerogen, shale oil is produced. [1] Due to the rich hydrocarbon contents within kerogen, shale oil cultivates use as a fossil fuel based resource for energy generation. The classification of shale oil is then determined by the environmental deposits, organic matter, and precursor organisms that existed thousands of years ago. [1] Three general groups exist as a means of representing the environment in which the shale was created: Terrestrial, lacustrine, and marine. Terrestrial oil shale is composed primarily of lipid-rich organic matter, lacustrine from algae, and marine derived from marine animals. [1] In the case of Estonia, which borders the Baltic sea, the kerogen is formed mostly from deposits of marine organisms and is classified as Kukersite a specific type of marine oil shale. [1]

Typical extraction surface mining practices are utilized in order to obtain the necessary sedimentary rocks containing shale oil. [2] From there, the extracted shale oil undergoes pyrolysis to produce oil shale, the desired product, shale gas, and residue. [2] However, this process produces sulfur, ammonia, alumina, soda ash, uranium, arsenic and nitrogen. [2] Thus, the current methods to extract, produce, and utilize shale oil are environmentally challenging and energy intensive.

Estonian Shale Oil Production Under USSR Occupancy

Under USSR occupancy, Estonia had relied on shale oil for over half of its fuel demand. [3] At its peak in 1980, Estonian shale oil mining and production had reached 31.3 million metric tons with production costs of 3.03 roubles per metric ton. [3] From 1980 to the fall of the USSR in 1991, shale oil production had steadily declined while costs began to increase after 1985. In 1985, production accumulated to 26.4 million metric tons and costs at 2.87 roubles per metric ton. [3] In 1989, production reached 23.3 million metric tons and costs jumped to 4.38 roubles per metric ton. [3] At the time of the USSRs fall in 1991, production yielded 20 million metric tons and costs increased to 16 roubles per metric ton. [3] These values are shown in Table 1 as a visual reference to compare the data clearly from year to year.

Year Shale Oil Consumption (mil. Metric tons) Cost (Euros/Metric Ton)
1975 28.5 2.59
1980 31.3 3.03
1985 26.4 2.87
1989 23.3 4.38
1991 20 16
Table 1: Shale oil consumption vs. cost in Estonia. [3]

Analysis

Based on the findings above, shale oil consumption has a strong link to the associated fluctuation in cost per metric ton. This is most clearly visualized in Fig. 1, in which the decreasing trend of consumption is closely connected to the rise in costs. The data, visualized in Fig. 1, suggests that as shale oil became less economically competitive, production began to decline and other forms of energy generation such as natural gas plants and imports began as more economic methods to meet demand. [3] Furthermore, in late 1991 the Soviet Union collapsed, paving the way for Estonia to become an independent country. As a result, Estonia was positioned to develop a brand new energy framework and policy for its citizens. [3] At the beginning of 1990, oil shale consumption had begun to fall and exports to Leningrad had ceased. [3] This situation led to a stockpiling in oil shale, which meant that a curtailment of its extraction had also been placed. Compared to 1980, production of shale oil had also increased by 44.5%. [3] Thus, it is clear to see why consumption and production of oil shale began to rapidly decline. Through higher production costs, limited needs, and a surplus in shale oil stockpiles, Estonia experienced a natural reduction and transition in its energy demands.

© Kevin Lamp. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.

References

[1] M. M. Ramírez-Corredores, The Science and Technology of Unconventional Oils, 1st Ed. (Academic Press, 2017), pp. 677-693.

[2] S. Papavinasam, Corrosion Control in the Oil and Gas Industry (Gulf Professional Publishing, 2013), p. 41.

[3] N. T. Barabaner and I. Z. Kaganovich, "Oil Shale Production and Power Generation in Estonia - Economic and Environmental Dilemmas," Energy Policy 21, 703 (1993).