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| Fig. 1: A visualization of China's growth in energy consumption from 1965 to 2021. [2] (Source: J. Shen) |
In the past 3 decades, China has seen a rapid ascent to one of the world's economic and technological superpowers. However, with this unparalleled growth, China has developed a tremendous appetite for energy consumption. Whether to power its growing list of technological projects or power its numerous large cities, energy has become a pivotal factor for sustaining China's recent growth. Furthermore, as observed in Fig. 1, China's growth in energy consumption has occurred at a steep rate in the past decades from 1965 to 2021. In 2021, the primary energy consumption of China reached [2]
In particular, as demonstrated in Fig. 2, coal, alongside other fossil fuels, makes up the overwhelming majority of China's energy consumption. As China continues to develop as a country, its reliance on energy stores such as coal are projected to grow to unprecedented levels with projected peaks in the near future, leading to pressing concerns of the negative repercussions of such heavy coal consumption. [1]
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| Fig. 2: Breakdown of China's energy consumption by source from 1965 to 2021. [2] (Source: J. Shen) |
In recent years, China has been internationally known for its high levels of air pollution in its biggest cities (i.e. Beijing, Shanghai). When examining the culprit of China's air pollution, although factors like automobiles and crop burning may contribute, previous reports have indicated that coal burning plants are responsible for as much as 33% of key air pollutants in the country's atmosphere (i.e. sulfur dioxide and nitric oxides). As a result, examining and estimating the overall health impact of China's coal-burning plants is crucial for future policy. [3]
China's extensive use of coal has led to dangerously high levels of air pollution. One one hand, airborne particulate matter has directly contributed to the visible haze that has begun to spread across China, originating from regions of high industrialization. Furthermore, airborne particulate matter is also impacting the health of Chinese residents, leading to rising levels of respiratory health issues. Particulate matter has been shown to contain toxic and potentially carcinogenic compounds like transition metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and black carbon. In fact, recent estimates suggest that the excessive exposure to particulate matter in China will result in a loss of over 3 billion years of life distributed among Chinese residents, a startling statistic. [4] A recent study by Yin et al. indicates that although air pollution reduction efforts are succeeding in reducing air pollution-related mortality, over 1 million deaths in 2017 alone were related to Chinese air pollution. [5] To combat this, local residents in areas of high pollution have been known to wear masks just to leave the house. [6] On the other hand, coal usage in China has also led to elevated levels of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide in the air, a highly problematic outcome as both are contributing to Chinese environmental degradation.
In order to examine the beneficial impacts of air pollution mitigation in China, we can calculate the projected impact of the COVID-19 pandemic's reduction of air pollution on the overall health of the Chinese population. Cole et al. estimate that the reduced levels of nitric dioxide in the atmosphere could have reduced national deaths related to air pollution by over 10,000. [7]
When examining coal usage in China and its long-term implications, it's important to consider the future projections of Chinese coal usage under various scenarios. Although something like air pollution is highly uncertain and mainly dictated by hard-to-forecast emergencies (i.e. the COVID-19 pandemic) or regulation, recent studies have attempted to employ computational models to project for future air pollution. Projections indicate that China's coal usage will peak sometime in the next decade, China's response to global policy shifts that prioritize environmental health. [8]
© Justin Shen. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.
[1] K.-Y. Dong et al., "A Review of China's Energy Consumption Structure and Outlook Based on a Long-Range Energy Alternatives Modeling Tool," Pet. Sci. 14, 214 (2016).
[2] "BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2022," British Petroleum, June 2022.
[3] R. Wu et al., "Air Quality and Health Benefits of China's Emission Control Policies on Coal-Fired Power Plants Furing 2005-2020," Environ. Res. Lett. 14, 094016 (2019).
[4] M. Zheng, C. Yan, and T. Zhu, "Understanding Sources of Fine Particulate Matter in China," Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 378, 20190325 (2020).
[5] P. Yin et al., "The Effect of Air Pollution on Deaths, Disease Burden, and Life Expectancy Across China and Its Provinces, 1990-2017: An Analysis For the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017," Lancet Planet. Health 4, E386 (2020).
[6] J. W. Cherrie et al., "Effectiveness of Face Masks Used to Protect Beijing Residents Against Particulate Air Pollution," Occup. Environ. Med. 75, 446 (2018).
[7] M. A. Cole, R. J. R. Elliott, and B. Liu, "The Impact of the Wuhan Covid-19 Lockdown on Air Pollution and Health: A Machine Learning and Augmented Synthetic Control Approach," Environ. Resour. Econ. 76, 553 (2020).
[8] J. Chen et al., "Carbon Peak and Its Mitigation Implications For China in the Post-Pandemic Era," Sci. Rep. 12, 3473 (2022).