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| Fig. 1: Energy supply chain. [2] (Courtesy of the DOE) |
In 2018, Oregonians purchased approximately 50 TWh (or 1.8 × 1017 J) of electricity. [1] Modern society depends on these electrons being available on demand, but few Oregonians consider the complexity of the system that delivers them in a timely and safe manner to over two million customers across a state that spans 95,988.01 square miles. As climate change accelerates the need for intermittent renewables sources and drives sectors to electrify, Oregon's grid its transmission and distribution lines are vital to a decarbonized future.
Oregon's grid is primarily comprised of two different types of wires. The first, distribution wires, are the short-range wires that deliver electricity locally at lower voltages, typically between 2kV and 35 kV. Transmission lines, in contrast, transport electricity over longer distances and much higher voltages, usually between 115 kV to 500 kV. [2] Distribution lines are the equivalent of local neighborhood streets and arterial roads while the transmission lines are like the interstate highway system (See Fig. 1 for basic outline).
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| Fig. 2: Oregon energy consumption by source. [1] (Source: J. Conger) |
The Oregon Public Utility Commission is responsible for regulating utilities and ensuring adequate distribution planning. However, Oregon shares a regional transmission area with several other states. The regional transmission planning entity is NorthernGrid. In the pacific northwest, there are approximately 44,000 miles of transmission lines. [1]
The growing sense of urgency around climate change has not only changed how electricity is generated but also how it is sited and moved. Renewable plants are limited to geographies with the requisite characteristics, forcing more congestion on certain transmission and distribution lines. Further, the intermittent nature of most renewable sources makes it more difficult to balance supply and demand, leading to wire failure and overheating.
Aided by abundant hydropower resources, Oregon has been a leader in transitioning to renewable sources of electricity. Over the past 10 years, Oregon has increased its wind generation by 224% and has added over 1 TWh (or 3.6 × 1015 J) of solar generation. [1]
The first state renewable portfolio standard was passed in 2007, and it was updated in 2016 with an even more ambitious standard of 50% renewables by 2040. [1] As more renewable assets are brought onto the grid, additional transmission and distribution lines will be needed to access new geographies and relieve congestion at certain nodes.
Due to cultural shifts and technological improvements, Oregonians are consuming less electricity per capita. Despite this, population trends have led to a relatively stable total energy demand. [1] At the same time, many models of decarbonization pathways assumes significant electrification of the rest of the economy. [3]
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| Fig. 3: 2008-2015 average incremental load-weighted transmission investment in the US. [4] (Source: J. Conger) |
If Oregon electrifies, it will dramatically increase the total electricity demand in the next 20 years. According to the 2020 Biennial Energy Report, 42.4% of Oregon's energy consumption is electricity; the remaining amount is transportation fuels (32.1%) and direct use fuels (25.5%). [1] If Oregon intends to electrify most sources of energy consumption, it could more than double its current electricity demand (see Fig. 2). That increase in demand will require a significant investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure. According to FERC, the rolling eight-year average price for transmission investments is $2.43 MWh-1 on the western grid (See Fig. 3). [4] At that rate, if Oregon doubled its electricity demand, it would require approximately $121 million in investment per year on new transmission lines alone.
There has been recent signs of increased investment in the grid. Construction has begun on the Boardman to Hemmingway 500 kV transmission line which will allow Oregon to access solar resources in western Idaho. [5] Similarly, Oregon's largest utility, Portland General Electric, increased its estimated capital expenditures by $100 million on new distribution and transmission lines. [6]
As Oregon transitions to a decarbonized future, it will need to accelerate investments in new transmission and distribution lines. While considering speed of deployment, it will need to adequately balance climate concerns with other risks such as reliability, wildfire, and affordability.
© Jordan Conger. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.
[1] "2020 Biennial Energy Report," Oregon Department of Energy, November 2020.
[2] "United States Electricity Industry Primer," U.S. Department of Energy DOE/OE-0017, July 2015.
[3] A. Mahone et al., "Achieving Carbon Neutrality in California," Energy and Environmental Economics, October 2020.
[4] "2017 Transmission Metrics", U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, October 2017.
[5] "Integrated Resource Plan 2019 (Second Amended)," Idaho Power Company, October 2020.
[6] "Distribution System Plan Part 1", Portland General Electric, October 2021.